Live Ascension Real Estate Information

September 7, 2010

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Analysis through August 2010

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database on 9/2/2010 and represent home sales between 1/1/2005 and 8/30/2010. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

I have good news and bad news to report about the Pelican Point real estate market. First the bad news… there are more homes on the market than the demand for them. The chart below shows that, overall, there is nearly a 12 month supply of existing homes based upon current absorption rates. For homes priced over $350K there is nearly a 2 year supply.

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Statistics

The next chart gives some cause for optimism. The rate of absorption for existing homes in 2010 shows some improvement over 2009. The absorption rate for new homes, however, is well below the peak of about 5 homes per month being sold in 2005 to about 1 every other month in 2010.

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Statistics

Another bit of good news is that existing homes appear to be holding values fairly well despite the imbalance in supply vs. demand. In 2010, home pricing (in terms of selling price per square foot of living area) has rebounded and, at $122.03/sq.ft., is well above what it was in the previous two years but has not yet recovered to the 2006 level.

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Statistics

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.



©2010 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (866)723-5477 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email1312

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com

www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

August 11, 2010

July 2010 - Sales Down but Contracts Up

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

There was a sharp drop in the number of closings (unit sales) in Ascension parish during July as the following chart illustrates. During June there were a total of 142 detached single family homes transferred while in July only 63 DSF homes transferred. This is a drop of more than 55%! Clearly a significant number of closings during the first half of 2010 were attributable to the Home Buyer Tax Credit.

Ascension Parish Real Estate

The next chart looks at new contracts negotiated for DSF homes during 2010. We can see that there was significant growth in the number of new contracts negotiated leading up to the April 30 deadline. Following that there was a significant drop in new contracts. While, as previously stated, there was a drop in the number of closings during July there was also a modest increase in the number of new contracts negotiated… from 85 in June to 96 in July, about a 13% increase. Improving but still a far cry from the 173 contracts negotiated in April.

Ascension Parish Real Estate

The stacked bars represent the number of contracts for each status code recorded as of 8/10 when the data were extracted. Contracts with a status of Withdrawn or Active represent contracts which have fallen through since originally written. Thankfully, that number is rather small. Pending and contingent contracts have not yet closed and, hopefully, represent future sales.

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.



©2010 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (866)723-5477 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email1312

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com

www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

July 1, 2010

Ascension Parish Home Sales- Effects of Tax Credit Expiration

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report - Effects of Tax Credit Expiration

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted. The data collected were for detached single family homes in Ascension parish which went under contract between January 1, 2010 and June 30, 2010.

In order to qualify for the $8,000 or $6,500 homebuyer tax credit, a homebuyer had to have an accepted contract in place on or before April 30, 2010. I wanted to quantify the impact of the expiration of that tax credit upon the real estate market in Ascension Parish. The expiration of the tax credit has, indeed, had a cooling effect on the market. Overall, there has been a drop of 36% in the average weekly number of accepted contracts since the expiration of the tax credit. The following chart illustrates that effect.

Ascension Parish Home Sales - Effects of Tax Credit Expiration

I separately calculated the effect for new construction and for re-sale homes. It appears that new construction benefited most from the tax credit. Since its expiration, the average number of new contracts per week dropped from 14.7/wk to 7.0 per week, a drop of 52%. For homes in the re-sale market segment, that drop was from 16.4/week to 13.0/wk or 21%.

The next chart plots the same data but shows the mix of new construction contracts vs. re-sale contracts as a percent of the total for a given week.

Ascension Parish Home Sales - Effects of Tax Credit Expiration

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.



©2010 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (866)723-5477 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email1312

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com

www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

May 9, 2010

Ascension Parish Real Estate - Residential Market Analysis April 2010

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database and represent sales of detached single family homes from January 2005 through April 2010. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

Unit sales in the parish were down a bit in April from unit sales in March. Both new construction and re-sale market segments were down. On the other hand, unit sales in April 2010 was higher in both segments than in April of 2009.

Ascension Real Estate

New construction unit sales in the period from January through April 2010 was higher than the same periods during 2008 and 2009. The re-sale segment for the January through April 2010 was higher than in 2009 but lower than in the years 2005 through 2008.

Ascension Real Estate

Overall $ sales volume was up. While volumes in 2006 and 2007 were higher, 2010 volumes were higher than in 2005, 2008 and 2009.

Ascension Real Estate

The average sales price of new construction continued to fall in the parish but the average sales price of previously owned homes during the first four months of the year was substantially higher than in any of the previous five years.

Ascension Real Estate

The average selling price per square foot of living area for new homes declined slightly as the trend toward smaller homes with fewer amenities continued. The price per square foot of living area for homes in the re-sale market segment increased slightly.

Ascension Real Estate

The last chart shows the history of $/sq.ft. between January 2005 and April 2010. One can see that in April 2010 there was virtually no difference between the new construction and re-sale segments. The last time that occured was in November of 2005 after which the selling price per square foot of living area for new construction rose substantially. It remains to be seen whether this event in April is significant.

Ascension Real Estate

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.



©2010 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (866)723-5477 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email1312

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com

www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

April 5, 2010

Ascension Parish Real Estate - Residential Market Analysis 1st Quarter 2010

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report 2010Q1

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted and represent detached single family home sales.

Unit of detached single family homes in Ascension parish were up about 24% in March of 2010 when compared to sales in March of 2009. Both the new construction and the re-sale market segments showed growth.

Ascension Home Sales

First quarter sales, likewise, show growth in 2010 when compared with 2009. In the re-sale market segment first quarter unit sales in 2010 are similar to those of 2007 and 2008.

Ascension Home Sales

The average selling price per square foot of living area is down marginally in both market segments for 2010 as the next chart demonstrates.

Ascension Home Sales

The following chart indicates that the decline may have bottomed out. In fact, there are some indications of improvement but it is too early to say for sure. We’ll continue to monitor this closely.

Ascension Home Sales

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.



©2010 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (866)723-5477 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email1312

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com

www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

October 11, 2009

Ascension Parish Real Estate - Residential Market Analysis September 2009

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.

As 2009 comes to a close the real estate market in Ascension Parish is continuing to resist the gloom haunting other markets in the country and is, in fact, showing signs of growth. The following chart shows monthly unit sales for the past several years. For September 2009, sales of previously owned homes exceeded sales in that market segment in both July and August of this year and approached sales in June 2009 which was the highest so far this year. While new construction unit sales didn’t perform as well as the previously owned market segment for September 2009, it significantly outperformed new construction sales in September 2008. This is not surprising since both the new and re-sale market segments were hard hit by the devastation caused by hurricane Gustav last year. That said, new construction unit sales last month outperformed all other months in 2008 except for the month of July.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market - Unit Sales

Using the average absorption rates observed so far this year, unit sales of the new construction market segment is projected to exceed 2008 levels. Unit sales for the re-sale market segment is projected to be only slightly less than that of 2008. Clearly, while less robust than the boom post-Katrina times, the real estate market in Ascension parish is showing remarkable signs of health despite the current difficulties we face in acquiring credit.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market - Unit Sales

The next two charts show historical trends of average selling price and average selling price per square foot for both market segments.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market - Average Price

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market - Average Price/sq.ft.

We can see that in the resale market segment, neither the average price nor the average price per sq.ft. have changed substantially from 2008 levels. This indicates that the equity in our residential real estate investment has weathered the economic downturn quite well. In the new construction segment, however, we see a downward shift toward more affordable housing… a trend previously reported on toward smaller homes with fewer upgrades and amenities.

The next two charts show the absorption rates and inventory levels for the two market segments. In the new construction segment, there is only a 3.3 month supply of new homes overall. This is a Seller’s Market. A Buyer’s Market condition exists only for homes priced over $400K. The highest velocity of home sales exists in the $150K-$250K price range which accounts for 65% of all new homes sold this year.

The previously owned market segment shows the highest velocity of sales in the same $150K-$250K price range which accounts for 51% of home sales. In fact, home sales under $250K accounted for 73% of all homes sold. Overall, it is a neutral market with 6.4 months supply but there is a great variation in this figure as we look at various price ranges. Previously owned homes over $400K have sold at a rate of 1.6 homes per month. With 60 homes on the market, at this rate it will take more than three years so sell off this inventory. At the other end of the spectrum, homes priced under $250K are enjoying robust sales and it is a Seller’s Market in these price ranges.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market - Absorption Rates

As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (866)723-5477 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email1312

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com

www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

August 29, 2009

What’s to Become of Spanish Lake

Filed under: General Information, News, Subdivision Information — admin @ 12:32 pm

Ascension Parish - Spanish Lake

An article in the August 10th issue of the Baton Rouge Businees Report discussed the competing interests of the owners of Alligator Bayou Tours and companies that sell wetland mitigation credits to support development. The article goes on to tell of two pending lawsuits in the parish regarding the basin.

I’ve taken my grandchildren on the Alligator Bayou tour have thoroughly enjoyed the experience. As a Realtor®, I have also benefited from development so I have mixed emotions over the controversy.

 

Spanish Lake, Ascension Parish

Spanish Lake, Ascension Parish

Alligator Bayou Resident

Alligator Bayou Resident



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email1312

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com
www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

July 12, 2009

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Analysis - 2009 Mid-Year Report

Pelican Point Real Estate Market Report

2009 Mid-year Report

This mid-year report is the result of my analysis of data retrieved from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS
database. Only data relating to detached single family (DSF) homes were included. None of the townhome sales were included in this
analysis as they represent a different product. As I have done in the past, I made a distinction between new construction and previously owned (re-sale) homes.

While the projected overall unit sales in Pelican Point are down from 2008, we can see improvement in new construction units sold.
Sales of previously owned homes are down from last year but, at current absorption rates, will be ahead of sales in the pre-Katrina year
of 2004. The following chart illustrates this point.

Ascension Real Estate

Overall, previously owned homes in the subdivision have held their value. The average price per square foot of living area has held
at $121.56/sq.ft. This is about even with 2008 sales but down from the selling prices in the years immediately following hurricane
Katrina. At $121.56, however, homes are selling well ahead of pre-Katrina prices. Homes in Pelican Point are diverse but,
in general, similar homes are on a given street. For that reason, I’ve analyzed the re-sale data by looking at sales by street. The following
chart shows selling $/sq.ft. and unit sales by street.

Ascension Real Estate

The next chart again shows that re-sale prices have held steady between 2008 and 2009. New construction prices, however, have declined
a bit from the high seen in 2008 but have remained higher than the average $/sq.ft. for the years 2004-2007.

Ascension Real Estate

Fewer than 2 homes per month are being sold in the re-sale market segment. With 29 homes currently listed, it is clearly a buyer’s market.
At current absorption rates there is a 15.8 month supply as the next chart illustrates.

Ascension Real Estate

The new construction segment has a 9.6 month supply at the current absorption rate of 0.8 homes per month. Drilling down through price
range, one can see that so far this year no homes over $400K have been sold yet there are four available. I would encourage builders
to refrain from building homes in this price range until the market for them rebounds.

Ascension Real Estate

Comments and suggestions are encouraged. Readers wishing to have a more in-depth discussion welcome to contact me directly.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax

don@thehomevendor.com
- email1312

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com
www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

January 19, 2009

Ascension Parish Real Estate - Market Update for Year Ending 2008

Filed under: General Information, Market Analysis, Uncategorized — admin @ 5:33 pm








Ascension Parish 2008 Year End Residential Real Estate Market Analysis

Recent articles in the national and local press have, in my opinion, been pretty negative regarding the real estate market.
I think there is more to the story that needs telling so people can make informed decisions about the real estate market.

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database.
For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Ascension parish for the years 2003 through
2008. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

The first parameter examined was the average sales price of a home in Ascension Parish. The following chart illustrates that prices held more or less
steady during 2008. The average home price for new construction remained about $258K while that of a previously owned home remained at about $207K.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Prices

The next four charts depict unit sales over the six-year period examined for this report. We can see the overall sales (the green lines) have, indeed,
dropped during 2008 as has been reported.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Unit Sales

The next two charts show monthly unit sales over the same period. The first of these charts illustrate new construction unit sales only
and the second deals only with homes in the re-sale market segment.

Ascension Parish Real Estate New Construction Unit Sales by Month

New construction unit sales have been significantly lower throughout the year.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Re-sale Homes Unit Sales by Month

We can see that, for the most part, homes in the re-sale market segment have maintained sales volumes at or near pre-Katrina levels. Most of the
drop in unit sales reported in the popular media is attributable to New Construction. The re-sale market wasn’t negatively affected to any significant
level until the drop attributable to the effects of hurricane Gustav in September.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Unit Sales

If one examines the previous chart closely, one can observe that the six-month moving average of unit sales has been dropping more or less steadily
since the fall of 2006. The effects of the mortgage industry crisis are, in my opinion, only secondary with respect to New Construction. I believe
that the increase in prices of new construction following hurricane Katrina was the primary cause for the drop in volume.

I’ve authored a report which examines the residential real estate market for the Greater Baton Rouge metro area in much greater detail than has been
presented here. Click Here to view the table of contents for this report.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax
don@thehomevendor.com - email1312
www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com
www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com


July 26, 2008

Filed under: General Information, Market Analysis — admin @ 1:19 pm

Ascension Parish Real Estate - Mid-year Market Analysis

Introduction

This report presents a comprehensive view of the real estate market for detached single-family homes in the Ascension Parish. Current and historical sales data are examined together with census projections to gain some insight into the future of real estate in this market area.*

Historical and current data were obtained from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. Data were extracted representing sales from January 1, 2003 through June 30, 2008. Only data for Detached Single Family homes were included in the analysis. Manufactured homes and multi-family dwellings are outside the scope of this analysis.

Ascension Parish Home Prices

The average price of homes continues to trend upward in the Resale category. New home prices have not been significantly different in 2008 from 2007.

Home ownership has been and remains a good investment in the Parish.

Ascension Parish Home Sales

Unit Sales - Monthly Trends

The six-month moving average of new homes continues to trend downward while that of homes in the resale market segment is trending upward. The downward trend in new home sales is significant since historically sales have increased by this time of the year.

The number of newly constructed homes projected to be sold in the parish during 2008 is dramatically lower than in 2007, dropping by over 45%. Unit sales in the resale market segment, however, is expected to remain strong in 2008. Based upon the first six months of sales data, unit sales of resale homes is projected to be only slightly less than in 2007 and well ahead of sales in pre-Katrina years.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Absorption

New Construction

At the end of 2007, there existed a 6.5-month supply of new homes in Ascension parish. It is clear from the chart below that the situation has worsened. There is currently a 10-month supply of new homes with excess inventory existing in nearly all price ranges. It is a seller’s market in only the $150K and below price range. Between $151K and $200K it is more or less a neutral market and above $200K it is clearly a buyer’s market. It appears that the inventory in the $300K to $350K range is coming into balance.

Through June, the absorption rate for new construction is less than 31 homes per month. This is the lowest rate of sale in the entire 5-year period examined for this report.

Resale Homes

The resale market in the parish has remained robust during 2008. Only slightly less than 2007 unit sales were ahead of those in the pre-Katrina years. In the lower (below $200K) price ranges it is still a seller’s market. Only when prices exceed $350K does a serious over supply situation exist. While it is a neutral market for the resale segment overall, at 6.5-months supply inventory levels have grown with respect to demand from the 5-month supply reported in our 2007 year-end report.


As always, I welcome readers to visit my websites at www.DonAndAlishaStern.com, www.TheHomeVendor.com, www.LiveAscension.com or www.PelicanPointHomes.net for real estate information about and to search for homes within the Greater Baton Rouge area. Click here to search for homes.

Contact me via e-mail1312 or call me at (225) 413-3624 for more information.

©2008 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

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